 NCTCOG's 2040 Forecast provides population and employment projections for the years 2035 and 2040 for the 12 counties in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metropolitan Planning Area (MPA). These data were created for use in intra-regional transportation planning.
The projection process started with the establishment of regional household and employment control totals for the forecast years. The control totals were based on projections purchased from Dr. Ray Perryman, who has developed models for forecasting economic and demographic factors. The control totals were allocated to forecast districts using the Gravity Land Use Model (G-LUM). This specialized model was developed by Dr. Kara Kockelman at the University of Texas at Austin and further improved by NCTCOG staff in cooperation with UT Austin. The forecasts at the district level were then disaggregated to Traffic Survey Zones (TSZs) using a disaggregation model developed at NCTCOG. The district forecasts were aggregated to 112 markets for the next phase of the process, which is a local review of the TSZ figures.
The 12-county area is expected to have over 10.5 million residents and over 6.6 million jobs by 2040. The forecast totals for the MPA are listed below.
* excludes populations in group quarters such as dormitories, correctional facilities, and nursing homes
12-County MPA |
2005 |
2035 |
2040 |
Household Population* |
5,777,272 |
9,833,378 |
10,543,336 |
Employment |
3,624,051 |
6,177,016 |
6,606,515 |
On February 24, 2011, NCTCOG's Executive Board approved the 2035 and 2040 market-level forecasts. These forecasts supersede any previous forecasts developed by NCTCOG. Following approval of the market-level forecasts, NCTCOG staff worked with local governments and other entities to refine the projections at the TSZ level.
The forecasts are produced through a coordinated effort between NCTCOG’s Research and Information Services and Transportation departments. For more information about the demographic forecast program, contact Donna Coggeshall at 817-695-9168.
Frequently Asked Questions [PDF]
Forecast Overview [PDF]
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Demographic Forecast Data and Maps
2005, 2035, 2040 Population and Employment by Market [PDF]
2005, 2035, 2040 Population and Employment by County [PDF]
2005, 2035, 2040 Population and Employment by Market and County [Excel]
2005, 2035, 2040 Population and Employment for Select Cities [PDF]
2040 Demographic Forecast Market Areas Map [PDF]
2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030 Projections by County [Excel]
Market areas GIS layer with forecast data [Zipped shapefile]
Demographic Forecast History
NCTCOG has produced long-range forecasts since the early 1970’s. Over the years, the extent of the geographic coverage and the data projected has varied. Some of the forecasts, particularly the more recent ones, have also included employment. For a graphic depiction of how the NCTCOG population forecasts have performed over time, click here.
Other Related Links
Development Monitoring
Metropolitan Transportation Plan
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