NCTCOG Study: Without Action, Flooding Could Cause Nearly $2.3 Billion in Additional Damage for Western North Texas
Preliminary findings identify hundreds of potential projects to protect homes, roads and downstream communities as region grows
November 5, 2026 (Arlington, TEXAS) – Flooding could cause nearly $2.3 billion in additional damage across western North Texas over the next 50 years, according to preliminary findings presented today to the Regional Transportation Council (RTC). The findings underscore the growing risks facing communities as development expands and the importance of taking action to protect homes, roads and other critical infrastructure.
Led by the North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG), the Integrated Transportation and Stormwater Infrastructure (TSI) Study examines how growth, transportation infrastructure and stormwater systems interact across portions of Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Hood, Johnson, Parker, Tarrant and Wise counties.
Launched in 2023, the study is identifying where coordinated investments and planning decisions could reduce flood damage, improve public safety and prevent costly problems for communities upstream and downstream.
The $2.3 billion damage estimate, which only covers the study’s western subarea from 2027 to 2076, counts existing and future buildings, their contents, vehicles, and displacement costs such as temporary housing for residents who must leave their homes. Modeling for the northern subarea is still underway.
As North Texas grows, more open land is being replaced by roads, rooftops and parking lots, leaving fewer places for precipitation to evaporate or soak into the ground. Across the study area, paved and developed surfaces are projected to increase from 6.4% of the land in 2020 to 35.2% by 2070, creating more runoff.
In a 500-year storm, nearly 900 existing homes in the Mary’s Creek and Upper Clear Fork Trinity River areas – which span parts of Tarrant, Parker, Hood and Johnson counties – would see floodwaters rise by more than a foot. If development occurs in the existing floodplains, the subsequent flooding would impact an additional 400 homes in this western part of the region. Additionally, more than 10,000 buildings downstream of the project area could be inundated as development removes lands that naturally hold back floodwater.
Without coordinated planning, this growth could increase runoff, overwhelm drainage systems and worsen flooding in surrounding and downstream communities, including portions of the Dallas-Fort Worth urban core. The region has an opportunity to coordinate infrastructure investments and development decisions now to reduce future flood risks and costs.
"What happens upstream affects everyone downstream,” said Susan Alvarez, NCTCOG Director of Environment & Development. “By coordinating how we plan for development, transportation and stormwater, we can reduce future flood risks, protect public safety and avoid passing along even greater costs to communities in the future."
Turning Research into Action
The TSI study has identified and evaluated 219 potential projects to reduce flooding and strengthen infrastructure. Nine of those are currently being submitted for consideration for state funding, representing approximately $160.2 million in proposed investments. Together, those projects are expected to prevent $227.8 million in flood damage. That means approximately $1.42 in avoided damage for every dollar invested.
Recommendations include larger culverts and bridges, drainage built into roadway corridors, rain gardens and other green infrastructure, protecting floodplains, and flood warning systems.
The study also suggests local policy options, such as keeping new buildings back from floodplains, requiring developers to check how projects affect downstream neighbors, and reducing paved surfaces.
"Transportation and stormwater infrastructure are closely connected, but historically, they haven't always been planned together," said Michael Morris, P.E., NCTCOG Director of Transportation and Staff Director to the RTC. "This study helps identify where coordinated investments can make the greatest difference before problems like flooded roads and disrupted travel occur.”
The TSI Study has involved extensive collaboration among 16 project partners, 85 cities and eight counties. Project staff have conducted nearly 100 community, subarea and partner coordination meetings to gather local input, evaluate flood risks and identify potential solutions.
The approximately $10 million effort is primarily funded by the Texas Water Development Board, federal transportation funds through the Texas Department of Transportation, and federal disaster-mitigation funds through the Texas General Land Office, with additional contributions from FEMA, local partners and the RTC.
Final Findings Expected by Year's End
The findings presented to the RTC are for the western portion, with additional modeling and benefit-cost analyses still underway for the northern portion of the study area. These preliminary results will also be presented to the NCTCOG Executive Board on Thursday, Nov.19.
NCTCOG expects to submit a draft report to the General Land Office by Nov. 30, with complete findings for the eight-county study area anticipated before the end of 2026.
As the study concludes, NCTCOG and its partners will focus on advancing recommended projects, identifying funding opportunities and helping communities incorporate flood resilience and enhanced drainage model outputs into future planning decisions. For more information, visit www.nctcog.org/TSI.
Media Contacts:
Caroline Vandergriff, NCTCOG Public Affairs & Communications Officer
(682) 427-4354
Brian Wilson, Transportation Communications Supervisor
(817) 704-2511
About the North Central Texas Council of Governments:
NCTCOG is a voluntary association of 238 local governments serving a 16-county region centered around Dallas-Fort Worth. Established in 1966, the organization provides regional planning, coordination, and technical expertise in transportation, environmental sustainability, emergency preparedness, public safety, workforce development, and human services for the region's more than 8.9 million residents.
About the Regional Transportation Council:
The Regional Transportation Council (RTC) of the North Central Texas Council of Governments has served as the Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) policymaking body for regional transportation planning in the Dallas-Fort Worth area since 1974. The MPO works in cooperation with the region’s transportation providers to address the complex transportation needs of the rapidly growing metropolitan area. The Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area includes Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Hood, Hunt, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, Rockwall, Tarrant and Wise counties. The RTC’s 45 members include local elected or appointed officials from the metropolitan area and representatives from each of the area’s transportation providers.